written by Blain Newport on Monday, 4 June, 2012
Better With Kinect
To demonstrate Kinect voice commands, a player speaks to make a character in an action game call in an air strike. Audibles are called in sports games. These are not bad things, but it only takes some simple math to prove they aren't worthwhile.
Publishers believe that the money Microsoft pays them to make voice commands for Kinect only is more than the extra copies they would sell (across all platforms) if they gave everyone with a headset access to this "amazing new feature".
Live Anywhere 2
Announcing MS Smart Glass! Yep, Microsoft's cross device initiative that died on the vine in 2006 is back and so withered it's hardly recognizable.
In 2006 Microsoft was talking about the future of games. Buy once, play on any device. Edit your race cars on your PC and phone, then race them on the Xbox. Play multiplayer games across all supported platforms. It was ambitious and cool.
If the 2012 edition succeeds in every way, it will be a dismal failure by 2006's standards. Microsoft's lead feature was being able to pick up watching a movie on your TV from where you left off watching it on your mobile device. They'll save you the two seconds it took to read and remember the time index and the three seconds it takes you to skip ahead on your TV.
The rest of the features (supplementary info during video viewing and gaming, using the tablet as a controller, web browsing) were also uninteresting.
Maybe they think a little tablet integration will make people ignore the Wii U, but that's wasted effort. The Wii U will sink or swim based on software designed for it's unique abilities.
As far as I'm concerned, Microsoft had nothing to show this year.
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
Showing posts with label predictions. Show all posts
04 June, 2012
03 June, 2012
It's E3 Time Again
written by Blain Newport on Saturday, 2 June, 2012
The industry trade and press show known as E3 will be starting soon.
Nintendo
Their new console, the Wii U, was announced at E3 last year. It's roughly as powerful as a 360 or PS3, but in addition to supporting Wii motion controls, it has a dual stick controller with a large touch screen on it.
The performance bump is nice for developers because it becomes easier to create a game that will run on all three consoles. But the Wii U isn't going to succeed because it can play the same games as everyone else. Nintendo needs to show consumers and retailers the software that will distinguish the Wii U.
Sony
The number of of Sony's game announcements that were leaked ahead of their E3 2011 press conference became comical. Outside of Naughty Dog's latest (and the slim possibility of an appearance by The Last Guardian), there doesn't seem to be any game the press are universally hyped about. Hopefully this just means Sony improved their security.
Sony's trying to get traction with Vita, their new portable system. According to gamesindustry.biz Sony will be bringing PS1 and PS2 games to the PS3 and possibly Vita using the Gaikai cloud gaming platform. That could put a lot of good, cheap games on the Vita for people with reliable mobile internet connections who don't mind a bit of lag.
Microsoft
Microsoft claims to have a number of world exclusive game announcements at their press conference. I'm betting more than half of them are Kinect titles.
Microsoft will lie about how much they care about Windows gaming, as they always do when they roll out a new OS. Just remember that over the last two years (2010 and 2011) Microsoft published four games for the PC and sixteen games for the Xbox. (source)
And they will apparently be making another push for Live Anywhere, the cross device connectivity initiative that, to my knowledge, hasn't moved the needle since it was announced at E3 2006.
Also everyone will probably announce new / enhanced music, video, and social media features / partnerships. I said it before, and I'll say it again: this overpriced generation was about conquering the living room (except for Nintendo). The question at this point is whether Smart TVs (with OnLive and Netflix integration, for example) can eventually cut the consoles out of the equation.
You may recall that I predicted MS and Sony console announcements at E3 this year. Barring a miracle, I was wrong. Sony almost certainly isn't announcing anything, and according to Arthur Gies of Rebel FM, Microsoft was planning an early announcement to steal a bit of Nintendo's thunder but had to call it off for some reason. Hey, if it means Microsoft's new hardware won't require over a billion dollars of repair work, I say delay it two years. :P
The industry trade and press show known as E3 will be starting soon.
Nintendo
Their new console, the Wii U, was announced at E3 last year. It's roughly as powerful as a 360 or PS3, but in addition to supporting Wii motion controls, it has a dual stick controller with a large touch screen on it.
The performance bump is nice for developers because it becomes easier to create a game that will run on all three consoles. But the Wii U isn't going to succeed because it can play the same games as everyone else. Nintendo needs to show consumers and retailers the software that will distinguish the Wii U.
Sony
The number of of Sony's game announcements that were leaked ahead of their E3 2011 press conference became comical. Outside of Naughty Dog's latest (and the slim possibility of an appearance by The Last Guardian), there doesn't seem to be any game the press are universally hyped about. Hopefully this just means Sony improved their security.
Sony's trying to get traction with Vita, their new portable system. According to gamesindustry.biz Sony will be bringing PS1 and PS2 games to the PS3 and possibly Vita using the Gaikai cloud gaming platform. That could put a lot of good, cheap games on the Vita for people with reliable mobile internet connections who don't mind a bit of lag.
Microsoft
Microsoft claims to have a number of world exclusive game announcements at their press conference. I'm betting more than half of them are Kinect titles.
Microsoft will lie about how much they care about Windows gaming, as they always do when they roll out a new OS. Just remember that over the last two years (2010 and 2011) Microsoft published four games for the PC and sixteen games for the Xbox. (source)
And they will apparently be making another push for Live Anywhere, the cross device connectivity initiative that, to my knowledge, hasn't moved the needle since it was announced at E3 2006.
Also everyone will probably announce new / enhanced music, video, and social media features / partnerships. I said it before, and I'll say it again: this overpriced generation was about conquering the living room (except for Nintendo). The question at this point is whether Smart TVs (with OnLive and Netflix integration, for example) can eventually cut the consoles out of the equation.
You may recall that I predicted MS and Sony console announcements at E3 this year. Barring a miracle, I was wrong. Sony almost certainly isn't announcing anything, and according to Arthur Gies of Rebel FM, Microsoft was planning an early announcement to steal a bit of Nintendo's thunder but had to call it off for some reason. Hey, if it means Microsoft's new hardware won't require over a billion dollars of repair work, I say delay it two years. :P
20 April, 2011
Gaming Culture
written by Blain Newport on Wednesday, 20 April, 2011
Gaming culture is a funny term. It recently popped up in a review of Portal 2 when Adam Biessner of Game Informer said the original game "defined a year-plus of gaming culture". The veracity of GLaDOS' promises of cake, the weighted companion cube, and of course the ending music kept popping up all over.
I don't think of those things as culture. They feel like memes, amusing refernces. It's probably just in my head, but I thought that culture was the stuff that was meaningful to people.
Or maybe I'm just out of touch. When I go to PAX now (and I just registered for PAX 2011), most of what I see feels pointless. All your base? Rick Astley? Dragonball Z? I like silly things, but putting them up on a thirty foot screen in front of hundreds (thousands?) of people who have already seen them feels extra tired. Heck, there were silly videos I'd never bothered to watch that felt instantly out of date in that format. But maybe that's just because being in a giant entrance line in a largely featureless concrete room that feels like the holding pen for a slaughterhouse does nothing for comedy. But I digress.
Culture used to be exclusively about geography. The printing press and faster forms of travel let ideas move around a bit more. And the internet lets them go all over. But does playing the same games and talking about them make gamers a culture? I'm not an anthropologist, but I suspect it doesn't.
I think it's called a culture, though, because people tie it to their identities. People dress up as game characters. People get game tattoos. People give game character names to pets or even children. I guess the idea is that culture is what shapes and defines identity, so if gaming does that, it's culture. But all this stuff happens with movies and music, too. Is there music culture? Is there movie culture? If there are, I don't hear them called by those names.
I have heard of hip-hop culture, so maybe it's about feeling apart. Liking music in general doesn't give you any identity. But if you're really into a particular type, then you start to be interested in the trappings and behavior associated with it. Maybe. If that's true, than the term gaming culture will probably go away as gaming becomes more pervasive. Or maybe it's already going away as we break into smaller groups like core / traditional gamers versus casual / social gamers.
Anyway, that's my muddled thinking on the subject as it stands. I predict that as long as there are hobbies closely associated with gaming that are considered outside the norm (writing chiptunes, cosplay, etc.), the term gaming culture will still exist. But as gaming becomes ubiquitous, those communities will become cultures of their own, and playing games will be like watching movies or listening to music.
I feel compelled to add a final note. These are all cultures based on escapist entertainment and consumerism, not the healthiest of sources. But that's a bigger subject for more educated people.
Gaming culture is a funny term. It recently popped up in a review of Portal 2 when Adam Biessner of Game Informer said the original game "defined a year-plus of gaming culture". The veracity of GLaDOS' promises of cake, the weighted companion cube, and of course the ending music kept popping up all over.
I don't think of those things as culture. They feel like memes, amusing refernces. It's probably just in my head, but I thought that culture was the stuff that was meaningful to people.
Or maybe I'm just out of touch. When I go to PAX now (and I just registered for PAX 2011), most of what I see feels pointless. All your base? Rick Astley? Dragonball Z? I like silly things, but putting them up on a thirty foot screen in front of hundreds (thousands?) of people who have already seen them feels extra tired. Heck, there were silly videos I'd never bothered to watch that felt instantly out of date in that format. But maybe that's just because being in a giant entrance line in a largely featureless concrete room that feels like the holding pen for a slaughterhouse does nothing for comedy. But I digress.
Culture used to be exclusively about geography. The printing press and faster forms of travel let ideas move around a bit more. And the internet lets them go all over. But does playing the same games and talking about them make gamers a culture? I'm not an anthropologist, but I suspect it doesn't.
I think it's called a culture, though, because people tie it to their identities. People dress up as game characters. People get game tattoos. People give game character names to pets or even children. I guess the idea is that culture is what shapes and defines identity, so if gaming does that, it's culture. But all this stuff happens with movies and music, too. Is there music culture? Is there movie culture? If there are, I don't hear them called by those names.
I have heard of hip-hop culture, so maybe it's about feeling apart. Liking music in general doesn't give you any identity. But if you're really into a particular type, then you start to be interested in the trappings and behavior associated with it. Maybe. If that's true, than the term gaming culture will probably go away as gaming becomes more pervasive. Or maybe it's already going away as we break into smaller groups like core / traditional gamers versus casual / social gamers.
Anyway, that's my muddled thinking on the subject as it stands. I predict that as long as there are hobbies closely associated with gaming that are considered outside the norm (writing chiptunes, cosplay, etc.), the term gaming culture will still exist. But as gaming becomes ubiquitous, those communities will become cultures of their own, and playing games will be like watching movies or listening to music.
I feel compelled to add a final note. These are all cultures based on escapist entertainment and consumerism, not the healthiest of sources. But that's a bigger subject for more educated people.
21 February, 2011
State of the Industry?
written by Blain Newport on Saturday, 19 February, 2011
I used to think I had a passing idea of how the industry was doing, but a lot of stuff just doesn't make sense.
Music games are out
Activision laid off virtually everyone working on Guitar Hero (and most of the rest of the company that wasn't Blizzard or working on Call of Duty). Similarly, Viacom sold Harmonix (the makers of Rock Band (and Guitar Hero initially)) back to the original owners.
But dancing games are in
Four of the top ten selling games at retail for January were Wii dancing games.
Conventional wisdom is that the 3DS will do great
I don't remember hearing any serious doubts on the Giant Bombcast, Gamers With Jobs podcast, or Weekend Confirmed. And I haven't seen doubts around the forums, either. But that might be because I haven't been looking for them.
But cell phone games cost a buck and DS games cost forty
We've got article titles like "As Mobile Games Rise, Studios Fear for Blockbusters’ Future" and "Peter Moore Likens Game Industry to 'Burning Oil Platform'" which talk about mobile games threatening the big games. But shouldn't the portables be feeling the squeeze much worse than the blockbusters?
Maybe the commentators I've listened to are just thinking about the hardware, which should be novel enough to move a lot of units initially. I don't know.
Game companies want to expand into other media
Facebook and the iPhone are big? Let's put versions of our game on them! Let's make comics! Let's make movies! Everything grows the brand and makes money simultaneously!
But game companies can't really create or share
People play a game to do stuff. But in every other medium they look for genres, settings, characters, stories, and sometimes particular actors, writers, or directors. Games work in well established genres. Sometimes they have interesting settings. But everything else they tend to do poorly, including giving recognition to performers and designers because they don't want to pay them more. Also the TV and film industries seem to view games as the enemy and vice versa, even when they're part of the same parent company.
The industry sees big money in social gaming
Farmville maker Zynga is making crazy bank. They made $200 million last year, and are supposed to be on track to more than double that this year. Considering the company's size, and that their revenues are more predictable than the hit driven big games, they're doing great.
But that's not how social interaction works
People have been trying to take some of World of Warcraft's success for years, and even though there are many games that had elements gamers preferred, everybody they knew was playing WoW already. I suspect that's the main challenge anyone trying to break into the social space will run up against. That doesn't mean you can't still make money there. But the kind of money a large publisher looks for may just be a pipe dream.
As many developers have said, these are frightening, exciting, and uncertain times for the industry. We'll see how it goes.
I used to think I had a passing idea of how the industry was doing, but a lot of stuff just doesn't make sense.
Music games are out
Activision laid off virtually everyone working on Guitar Hero (and most of the rest of the company that wasn't Blizzard or working on Call of Duty). Similarly, Viacom sold Harmonix (the makers of Rock Band (and Guitar Hero initially)) back to the original owners.
But dancing games are in
Four of the top ten selling games at retail for January were Wii dancing games.
Conventional wisdom is that the 3DS will do great
I don't remember hearing any serious doubts on the Giant Bombcast, Gamers With Jobs podcast, or Weekend Confirmed. And I haven't seen doubts around the forums, either. But that might be because I haven't been looking for them.
But cell phone games cost a buck and DS games cost forty
We've got article titles like "As Mobile Games Rise, Studios Fear for Blockbusters’ Future" and "Peter Moore Likens Game Industry to 'Burning Oil Platform'" which talk about mobile games threatening the big games. But shouldn't the portables be feeling the squeeze much worse than the blockbusters?
Maybe the commentators I've listened to are just thinking about the hardware, which should be novel enough to move a lot of units initially. I don't know.
Game companies want to expand into other media
Facebook and the iPhone are big? Let's put versions of our game on them! Let's make comics! Let's make movies! Everything grows the brand and makes money simultaneously!
But game companies can't really create or share
People play a game to do stuff. But in every other medium they look for genres, settings, characters, stories, and sometimes particular actors, writers, or directors. Games work in well established genres. Sometimes they have interesting settings. But everything else they tend to do poorly, including giving recognition to performers and designers because they don't want to pay them more. Also the TV and film industries seem to view games as the enemy and vice versa, even when they're part of the same parent company.
The industry sees big money in social gaming
Farmville maker Zynga is making crazy bank. They made $200 million last year, and are supposed to be on track to more than double that this year. Considering the company's size, and that their revenues are more predictable than the hit driven big games, they're doing great.
But that's not how social interaction works
People have been trying to take some of World of Warcraft's success for years, and even though there are many games that had elements gamers preferred, everybody they knew was playing WoW already. I suspect that's the main challenge anyone trying to break into the social space will run up against. That doesn't mean you can't still make money there. But the kind of money a large publisher looks for may just be a pipe dream.
As many developers have said, these are frightening, exciting, and uncertain times for the industry. We'll see how it goes.
20 February, 2011
A Bit More On Biometrics
written by Blain Newport on Sunday, 20 February, 2011
There were a couple more things about biometrics I wanted to mention. Valve had a debug setup where they could play Left 4 Dead competitively and see the excitement level of everyone playing. They noticed that people often attacked the most excited player on the other team and defended the most excited player on their own team. And this is definitely valuable data to have as a player. I often get frustrated with teammates who don't know what to do, but if I could see that they were freaking out, I would be more likely to cut them some slack.
Gabe actually thinks this might make the internet significantly more civil, but I doubt it. A lot of the people who behave badly in games do it precisely because they get a rise out of people. Being able to see your jerkiness have a quantitative effect will probably just make it more fun for them.
Also, the second people catch on that The Director attacks them less when they're exited, or that everyone helps the person with the highest excitement, they'll just lick their hand so the sensor thinks they're totally sweaty and freaking out.
We're gamers. Give us a system; we game it.
There were a couple more things about biometrics I wanted to mention. Valve had a debug setup where they could play Left 4 Dead competitively and see the excitement level of everyone playing. They noticed that people often attacked the most excited player on the other team and defended the most excited player on their own team. And this is definitely valuable data to have as a player. I often get frustrated with teammates who don't know what to do, but if I could see that they were freaking out, I would be more likely to cut them some slack.
Gabe actually thinks this might make the internet significantly more civil, but I doubt it. A lot of the people who behave badly in games do it precisely because they get a rise out of people. Being able to see your jerkiness have a quantitative effect will probably just make it more fun for them.
Also, the second people catch on that The Director attacks them less when they're exited, or that everyone helps the person with the highest excitement, they'll just lick their hand so the sensor thinks they're totally sweaty and freaking out.
We're gamers. Give us a system; we game it.
19 February, 2011
Biometrics
written by Blain Newport on Wednesday, 16 February, 2011
I saw a mention on Blues News about an interview with Valve Software head honcho Gabe Newell (Part 1, Part 2).
I had heard about Valve working with psychologists in some of the coverage surrounding Half-Life 2. I thought they'd worked on the facial animation system and gone back to their old jobs. It turns out there's a lot I didn't know.
Here's the first question of the interview.
Huh? Seriously? That's your first question?
Gabe spent over eight minutes responding. I had no idea Valve was so far down this road. Heck, I didn't even know this was a road.
Galvanic Skin Response - by measuring how much a person is sweating, you can tell how excited he or she is. You can't tell if it's fear or anger or lust. But you know they're worked up about something. Valve's put this tech into mice (the mouse and keyboard kind, not the medical experiment kind), so they can measure player responses.
If you've played Left 4 Dead, you probably already know where this is going. Left 4 Dead is a cooperative game where AI opponents are set loose on the players by an algorithm called The Director. When the players are healthy and well armed, The Director sends more monsters. When they're beaten and running on empty, The Director may space the enemies out more, or spawn more helpful items for players to find. It's a good system. But now, it knows when they're afraid. That allows them to adjust The Director in very effective ways.
Gabe said he "would be surprised" if next gen controllers didn't have this tech integrated.
Eye tracking - While current console cameras and most webcams don't have the resolution, we may eventually get to the point where tracking eye movement and pupil dilation (which can indicate interest in what the viewer is looking at) becomes feasible. Advertisers have long used eye tracking to test that their ads draw viewers to their logo or product. But it's also very important to games where designers want to be sure players see cool scripted events, find clues to solve puzzles, and can see an enemy telegraphing an attack to react accordingly. As a side benefit, this might allow users to navigate menus and target by simply glancing around the screen.
No estimate of when this might be practical for mainstream use was given.
Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation - Outside of having EEG equipment implanted in your head, this was the freakiest thing discussed in the interview. Apparently researches have made significant progress in remotely stimulating specific parts of the brain with magnets. If you want the player to feel something, you directly stimulate the relevant portions of his or her brain. The long term effects on humans aren't known. But people are already willing to risk severe illness and death for the way alcohol and nicotine (not to mention illegal drugs) make them feel, so who knows?
Gabe thinks we may see this tech make it into some kind of game controller ten years from now. Although he might have been talking about a crazy expensive PC peripheral, and not any kind of mainstream application.
Before the Wii came out, most of this would have sounded like crazy talk. But from the Wii's success, the responses from the other console makers, and the push for 3D, it's obvious that the industry has a keen interest in any new differentiator.
I saw a mention on Blues News about an interview with Valve Software head honcho Gabe Newell (Part 1, Part 2).
I had heard about Valve working with psychologists in some of the coverage surrounding Half-Life 2. I thought they'd worked on the facial animation system and gone back to their old jobs. It turns out there's a lot I didn't know.
Here's the first question of the interview.
In the past you spoke about using biometrics to measure players physical and emotional response to a game. Would this technology only apply to play-testing in order to add better design the games or would it be something that all players would be able to use? If it became an option for all players, how do you see this technology being integrated in a non-intrusive piece of hardware.
Huh? Seriously? That's your first question?
Gabe spent over eight minutes responding. I had no idea Valve was so far down this road. Heck, I didn't even know this was a road.
Galvanic Skin Response - by measuring how much a person is sweating, you can tell how excited he or she is. You can't tell if it's fear or anger or lust. But you know they're worked up about something. Valve's put this tech into mice (the mouse and keyboard kind, not the medical experiment kind), so they can measure player responses.
If you've played Left 4 Dead, you probably already know where this is going. Left 4 Dead is a cooperative game where AI opponents are set loose on the players by an algorithm called The Director. When the players are healthy and well armed, The Director sends more monsters. When they're beaten and running on empty, The Director may space the enemies out more, or spawn more helpful items for players to find. It's a good system. But now, it knows when they're afraid. That allows them to adjust The Director in very effective ways.
Gabe said he "would be surprised" if next gen controllers didn't have this tech integrated.
Eye tracking - While current console cameras and most webcams don't have the resolution, we may eventually get to the point where tracking eye movement and pupil dilation (which can indicate interest in what the viewer is looking at) becomes feasible. Advertisers have long used eye tracking to test that their ads draw viewers to their logo or product. But it's also very important to games where designers want to be sure players see cool scripted events, find clues to solve puzzles, and can see an enemy telegraphing an attack to react accordingly. As a side benefit, this might allow users to navigate menus and target by simply glancing around the screen.
No estimate of when this might be practical for mainstream use was given.
Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation - Outside of having EEG equipment implanted in your head, this was the freakiest thing discussed in the interview. Apparently researches have made significant progress in remotely stimulating specific parts of the brain with magnets. If you want the player to feel something, you directly stimulate the relevant portions of his or her brain. The long term effects on humans aren't known. But people are already willing to risk severe illness and death for the way alcohol and nicotine (not to mention illegal drugs) make them feel, so who knows?
Gabe thinks we may see this tech make it into some kind of game controller ten years from now. Although he might have been talking about a crazy expensive PC peripheral, and not any kind of mainstream application.
Before the Wii came out, most of this would have sounded like crazy talk. But from the Wii's success, the responses from the other console makers, and the push for 3D, it's obvious that the industry has a keen interest in any new differentiator.
31 January, 2011
Next Gen
written by Blain Newport on Monday, 31 January, 2011
Salt Racer brought up the subject of the next generation of consoles and how nobody talks about it. I suspect that's because they're still a ways off. Well, maybe not Nintendo, but trying to predict their next move seems foolhardy.
Sony and Microsoft are making money right now. They like that. Both companies lost huge sums on launching the last hardware, and that wasn't during a prolonged recession, so they probably want to hold off as long as possible without getting caught napping.
Microsoft spent 500 million promoting Kinect and will want to spend at least two holiday seasons (2010 and 2011) cashing in on that investment. Sony also invested in their motion controls, and the thought of another launch like the PS3 probably still makes some of the Sony folks break out in a cold sweat.
That said, Sony is introducing a hand-held that can play Metal Gear Solid 4 (at reduced frame rate, but still). If that much power can fit into a hand-held, full HD 3D consoles could probably be ready today, if it wasn't for the economic roadblocks.
My guess is we'll see announcements at E3 2012. But that's just a guess.
Salt Racer brought up the subject of the next generation of consoles and how nobody talks about it. I suspect that's because they're still a ways off. Well, maybe not Nintendo, but trying to predict their next move seems foolhardy.
Sony and Microsoft are making money right now. They like that. Both companies lost huge sums on launching the last hardware, and that wasn't during a prolonged recession, so they probably want to hold off as long as possible without getting caught napping.
Microsoft spent 500 million promoting Kinect and will want to spend at least two holiday seasons (2010 and 2011) cashing in on that investment. Sony also invested in their motion controls, and the thought of another launch like the PS3 probably still makes some of the Sony folks break out in a cold sweat.
That said, Sony is introducing a hand-held that can play Metal Gear Solid 4 (at reduced frame rate, but still). If that much power can fit into a hand-held, full HD 3D consoles could probably be ready today, if it wasn't for the economic roadblocks.
My guess is we'll see announcements at E3 2012. But that's just a guess.
16 June, 2010
Nintendo and Sony Press Conferences; Game Updates
written by Blain Newport on Wednesday, 16 June, 2010
Nintendo
I suspect a lot of people are going to say Nintendo "won" the show. They announced a lot of entries in classic franchises (Zelda, Kirby, Donkey Kong Country, Kid Icarus, GoldenEye).
The 3D on the new 3DS handheld seemed to go over well with most people, and if all the games announced for the 3DS come out, it's going to have a ridiculous library (on top of being backwards compatible with the DS). I don't much care for Metal Gear games after Metal Gear Solid, but the fact that Metal Gear Solid 3 will be coming to a handheld and in 3D both speaks to the level of support and power of the device. (How the game will play with only one analog stick is another question.)
While I personally liked the emphasis on core games, I'm really surprised there weren't more games for other Wii consumers. It was like Microsoft and Nintendo had switched roles and while I think I understand Microsoft's (terrible) strategy, Nintendo's console strategy has me at a loss.
Sony
Sony's (terrible) strategy, on the other hand, was exactly as expected. They pushed 3D and their Wii controller. Supposedly their entire conference was in 3D to prove how essential 3D is now. Tycho from Penny Arcade did a splendid job of throwing cold water on the hype.
But price always comes down (if consumers don't reject it outright), and part of me has reason to hope 3D works out. When games first moved to flat 3D, I felt like we lost a lot of precision. I was hoping really good stereoscopic 3D might help third person games feel more natural. It might be easier to judge my jumps and my character's reach and to get a better feeling of space. (The 3D upgraded version of the Sly Cooper trilogy may be my litmus test of Sony's tech.) In an ideal world, Sony's figured it out. And after a few years, 3D will be an affordable standard. But I can't help but look at that price tag and think it's anything but madness, currently.
While not as absurd, the Move's value proposition isn't much better. A 360 Arcade unit plus Kinect (if the rumored price is true), will run you $300. The PS3 plus Move will cost you $400, and you will need to buy a nunchuck and a second controller to play some of the single player content we've seen, raising the total investment to $480.
The Wii costs $200.
Game Over
Speaking of games that should be over, there was no announcement of a replacement for the PSP and PSP Go. I've never understood why the PSP sold at all in first place, so maybe that unknown reason will keep them selling okay against the 3DS.
Finally, back in the land of the core gamers, Sony performed decently, probably better than Microsoft. But neither company impressed me.
Game Updates
Fallout: New Vegas - 1UP did a developer interview with some live gameplay. It's nothing earth shattering, but the game looks to be coming along fine. I'm struck by the elements of the new Fallout games that seems static and lifeless: the barren environments, the lack of color, the slow pace. But that usually helps the crazy stuff stand out more. It's comfortable.
Brink - The hands-on was short, but there was one, which is much better than nothing as it means the game's core mechanics have come along.
Nintendo
I suspect a lot of people are going to say Nintendo "won" the show. They announced a lot of entries in classic franchises (Zelda, Kirby, Donkey Kong Country, Kid Icarus, GoldenEye).
The 3D on the new 3DS handheld seemed to go over well with most people, and if all the games announced for the 3DS come out, it's going to have a ridiculous library (on top of being backwards compatible with the DS). I don't much care for Metal Gear games after Metal Gear Solid, but the fact that Metal Gear Solid 3 will be coming to a handheld and in 3D both speaks to the level of support and power of the device. (How the game will play with only one analog stick is another question.)
While I personally liked the emphasis on core games, I'm really surprised there weren't more games for other Wii consumers. It was like Microsoft and Nintendo had switched roles and while I think I understand Microsoft's (terrible) strategy, Nintendo's console strategy has me at a loss.
Sony
Sony's (terrible) strategy, on the other hand, was exactly as expected. They pushed 3D and their Wii controller. Supposedly their entire conference was in 3D to prove how essential 3D is now. Tycho from Penny Arcade did a splendid job of throwing cold water on the hype.
The Kinect is rumored to cost a hundred and fifty dollars, and this is considered to be the equivalent of a street mugging. To contrast, a single pair of active shutter glasses costs the same amount - every picture of a deliriously happy family enjoying 3D content is predicated on a hardware investment north of four thousand dollars.
But price always comes down (if consumers don't reject it outright), and part of me has reason to hope 3D works out. When games first moved to flat 3D, I felt like we lost a lot of precision. I was hoping really good stereoscopic 3D might help third person games feel more natural. It might be easier to judge my jumps and my character's reach and to get a better feeling of space. (The 3D upgraded version of the Sly Cooper trilogy may be my litmus test of Sony's tech.) In an ideal world, Sony's figured it out. And after a few years, 3D will be an affordable standard. But I can't help but look at that price tag and think it's anything but madness, currently.
While not as absurd, the Move's value proposition isn't much better. A 360 Arcade unit plus Kinect (if the rumored price is true), will run you $300. The PS3 plus Move will cost you $400, and you will need to buy a nunchuck and a second controller to play some of the single player content we've seen, raising the total investment to $480.
The Wii costs $200.
Game Over
Speaking of games that should be over, there was no announcement of a replacement for the PSP and PSP Go. I've never understood why the PSP sold at all in first place, so maybe that unknown reason will keep them selling okay against the 3DS.
Finally, back in the land of the core gamers, Sony performed decently, probably better than Microsoft. But neither company impressed me.
Game Updates
Fallout: New Vegas - 1UP did a developer interview with some live gameplay. It's nothing earth shattering, but the game looks to be coming along fine. I'm struck by the elements of the new Fallout games that seems static and lifeless: the barren environments, the lack of color, the slow pace. But that usually helps the crazy stuff stand out more. It's comfortable.
Brink - The hands-on was short, but there was one, which is much better than nothing as it means the game's core mechanics have come along.
14 June, 2010
Microsoft Press Conference and Games I'll Be Watching
written by Blain Newport on Monday, 14 June, 2010
Microsoft Press Conference
Microsoft did indeed, fail to show any application for their motion control (now called Kinect) that would interest core gamers. You may remember from my motion control post from last October that I thought they would include head tracking or some other incremental improvement to core games that would make the hardcore buy it to maintain their edge in multiplayer. They didn't. (UPDATE: Apparently they did announce head tracking in an upcoming racing game (Forza).) I suspect this means failure on a large scale as they try to capture the Wii market with devices that will likely cost twice as much. Microsoft isn't even discussing price yet.
To tide me over while waiting to see what Nintendo and Sony have to show us tomorrow, I've been thinking about what games I'm interested to see more about.
Yes
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - I liked Deus Ex. I even liked the sequel (if only because the guards were fun to mess with). If this game does nothing more than gives me AIs that are fun to grief, I will enjoy it thoroughly.
Fallout: New Vegas - If you read this blog, you know I have loved me some Fallout 3. A new world to explore sounds peachy. Having it be the ruins of atomic age Las Vegas has a lot of potential, too. I'm already considering a character based on Sammy Davis Jr.
Maybe
Batman: Arkham Asylum 2 - Who's writing it? Can they keep the mechanics feeling fresh when it will likely be the same gadgets?
Brink - These guys made the Enemy Territory games which get played at Matthew's LAN parties, so hopefully they can keep us entertained. There better be some hands-on.
Bulletstorm - Oy. The game mechanics look fun. But the writing is embarrassing. I don't mind vulgarity, but it's so random and unfunny in Bulletstorm. "You scared the #*@& off me!" Are these just bad translations from Polish?
Crysis 2 - It's in New York instead of a jungle, but the storytelling still looks very broad and disposable.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Armada of the Damned - I'm not really a Pirates fan. I only watched the first movie. But I've heard you can do some strange stuff in this game. Defacing an idol to make it look like yourself so that the villagers worship you sounds like a fun, silly thing to do. If the rest of the game has that much character, it could be a good time.
Rage - It's id. They made DooM. You can call them old and irrelevant, but I'm old and irrelevant, so I still care.
XCom - When you take a beloved turn based strategy game and turn it into a first person shooter, people are going to accuse you of abusing the name, selling out, etc. Whether it succeeds or fails, there'll almost certainly be some lessons to learn out of what happens with XCom.
Uhhhh...
Bodycount - The designer is the same guy who designed Black, which was pretty but poorly paced and not very dynamic in play. The same thing with even shinier graphics does not appeal.
Bionic Commando Rearmed 2 - It's another side scrolling Bionic Commando game. I feel like I ought to be interested in where they take the game. I ought to be interested in the co-op. But I'm currently playing GunGirl 2 and feel like action platformers are kind of tapped out.
Dead Rising 2 - The save structure is still broken, so I have a hard time mustering any enthusiasm for the co-op zombie slaying on offer.
Dead Space 2 - It looks like the first game, which always felt pretty plodding to me.
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars - Batman and Indy weren't nearly as enjoyable for me as the other LEGO Star Wars games. Part of me thinks this franchise lost me already. Part of me thinks that if they bring back the formula from the first games, this could be worth playing.
Spec Ops: The Line - All I've heard about this game so far is that it's a gritty, morally suspect, modern military shooter, which in my mind translates to, "This game has no hook." I probably wouldn't care at all, but Greg Kasavin, who worked at GameSpot when I watched GameSpot, is working on the game in some capacity.
Microsoft Press Conference
Microsoft did indeed, fail to show any application for their motion control (now called Kinect) that would interest core gamers. You may remember from my motion control post from last October that I thought they would include head tracking or some other incremental improvement to core games that would make the hardcore buy it to maintain their edge in multiplayer. They didn't. (UPDATE: Apparently they did announce head tracking in an upcoming racing game (Forza).) I suspect this means failure on a large scale as they try to capture the Wii market with devices that will likely cost twice as much. Microsoft isn't even discussing price yet.
To tide me over while waiting to see what Nintendo and Sony have to show us tomorrow, I've been thinking about what games I'm interested to see more about.
Yes
Deus Ex: Human Revolution - I liked Deus Ex. I even liked the sequel (if only because the guards were fun to mess with). If this game does nothing more than gives me AIs that are fun to grief, I will enjoy it thoroughly.
Fallout: New Vegas - If you read this blog, you know I have loved me some Fallout 3. A new world to explore sounds peachy. Having it be the ruins of atomic age Las Vegas has a lot of potential, too. I'm already considering a character based on Sammy Davis Jr.
Maybe
Batman: Arkham Asylum 2 - Who's writing it? Can they keep the mechanics feeling fresh when it will likely be the same gadgets?
Brink - These guys made the Enemy Territory games which get played at Matthew's LAN parties, so hopefully they can keep us entertained. There better be some hands-on.
Bulletstorm - Oy. The game mechanics look fun. But the writing is embarrassing. I don't mind vulgarity, but it's so random and unfunny in Bulletstorm. "You scared the #*@& off me!" Are these just bad translations from Polish?
Crysis 2 - It's in New York instead of a jungle, but the storytelling still looks very broad and disposable.
Pirates of the Caribbean: Armada of the Damned - I'm not really a Pirates fan. I only watched the first movie. But I've heard you can do some strange stuff in this game. Defacing an idol to make it look like yourself so that the villagers worship you sounds like a fun, silly thing to do. If the rest of the game has that much character, it could be a good time.
Rage - It's id. They made DooM. You can call them old and irrelevant, but I'm old and irrelevant, so I still care.
XCom - When you take a beloved turn based strategy game and turn it into a first person shooter, people are going to accuse you of abusing the name, selling out, etc. Whether it succeeds or fails, there'll almost certainly be some lessons to learn out of what happens with XCom.
Uhhhh...
Bodycount - The designer is the same guy who designed Black, which was pretty but poorly paced and not very dynamic in play. The same thing with even shinier graphics does not appeal.
Bionic Commando Rearmed 2 - It's another side scrolling Bionic Commando game. I feel like I ought to be interested in where they take the game. I ought to be interested in the co-op. But I'm currently playing GunGirl 2 and feel like action platformers are kind of tapped out.
Dead Rising 2 - The save structure is still broken, so I have a hard time mustering any enthusiasm for the co-op zombie slaying on offer.
Dead Space 2 - It looks like the first game, which always felt pretty plodding to me.
LEGO Star Wars III: The Clone Wars - Batman and Indy weren't nearly as enjoyable for me as the other LEGO Star Wars games. Part of me thinks this franchise lost me already. Part of me thinks that if they bring back the formula from the first games, this could be worth playing.
Spec Ops: The Line - All I've heard about this game so far is that it's a gritty, morally suspect, modern military shooter, which in my mind translates to, "This game has no hook." I probably wouldn't care at all, but Greg Kasavin, who worked at GameSpot when I watched GameSpot, is working on the game in some capacity.
11 June, 2010
E3 Cometh
written by Blain Newport on Friday, 11 June, 2010
E3 is around the corner again. By this time next week, it'll all be over but the podcasting. It's time for a rundown of what to expect and to make some predictions.
Sony and Nintendo will have made their big 3D plays.
Sony believes that 3D will differentiate the PS3. I'm highly skeptical because the few people who have had hands on with the demo for Killzone 3 said the 3D bits failed to impress.
Nintendo will be unveiling the 3DS. Since most people incorrectly assumed the DS and Wii would flop, it feels like people are erring on the side of caution and not saying anything about the 3DS until they see it in action. I doubt 3D will go anywhere this generation. But as long as the 3DS is backwards compatible, it should sell.
Sony and Microsoft will have made their big motion control plays.
Impressions from early press events indicate that they're trying to sell a Wii-like experience for far more money. I foresee funny-sad press conferences followed by marketplace floundering.
There will be many exploitation games announced.
By that I mean games that use "mature" content in the most artless, blatant way possible. My suspicion is that in this bad economy the marketing people are desperate to outdo each other, to hardcore harder.
This may work out. Some pretty dubious games (Leisure Suit Larry: Magna Cum Laude and Fear Effect spring to mind) managed to do well enough to have sequels this way. And some games sold above their genre expectations (Dragon Age) by doing this.
But those games stood out because they were being sold in a way other games weren't. If everybody does it at the same time, nobody stands out. Nobody's sales improve. And the public perception of the industry gets set back a decade or so.
I don't think it will be a good E3. But at least it probably won't be boring.
E3 is around the corner again. By this time next week, it'll all be over but the podcasting. It's time for a rundown of what to expect and to make some predictions.
Sony and Nintendo will have made their big 3D plays.
Sony believes that 3D will differentiate the PS3. I'm highly skeptical because the few people who have had hands on with the demo for Killzone 3 said the 3D bits failed to impress.
Nintendo will be unveiling the 3DS. Since most people incorrectly assumed the DS and Wii would flop, it feels like people are erring on the side of caution and not saying anything about the 3DS until they see it in action. I doubt 3D will go anywhere this generation. But as long as the 3DS is backwards compatible, it should sell.
Sony and Microsoft will have made their big motion control plays.
Impressions from early press events indicate that they're trying to sell a Wii-like experience for far more money. I foresee funny-sad press conferences followed by marketplace floundering.
There will be many exploitation games announced.
By that I mean games that use "mature" content in the most artless, blatant way possible. My suspicion is that in this bad economy the marketing people are desperate to outdo each other, to hardcore harder.
This may work out. Some pretty dubious games (Leisure Suit Larry: Magna Cum Laude and Fear Effect spring to mind) managed to do well enough to have sequels this way. And some games sold above their genre expectations (Dragon Age) by doing this.
But those games stood out because they were being sold in a way other games weren't. If everybody does it at the same time, nobody stands out. Nobody's sales improve. And the public perception of the industry gets set back a decade or so.
I don't think it will be a good E3. But at least it probably won't be boring.
21 October, 2009
State of Motion Controls
written by Blain Newport on Monday, October 19, 2009
Preface: Kris Graft wrote this piece on motion controllers that took 1700 words to say stuff that most gamers had hashed out by the end of E3 (over four months ago). It's probably supposed to be introductory level material for a broad audience. It wasn't written for me. But I didn't know that at the time, so to me it felt like the piece beat around the bush and missed important information / didn't go deep enough. So I decided to write the piece I wanted to read.
The Basics
Since E3, we've known about Sony and Microsoft's motion controllers.
Microsoft will have a camera + microphone + infrared depth sensor.
Sony will have a camera + microphone + glowing Wiimotes.
Why?
The Wii proved that novel, simple controls could help broaden the audience for gaming. Sony and Microsoft want to control the living room, so they need to appeal to that wider audience.
The Wii also proved the wider audience didn't care about bleeding edge hardware. Considering Sony lost over three billion on the PS3, and Microsoft lost over a billion on faulty hardware, both would probably prefer to extend the current generation a year or two with new controls than go through another launch.
Sticklers' Note: Yes, the PS3 helped Sony "win the war" with HD-DVD, and they are making their 3+ billion back in licensing fees. But at $10 a player and 11 cents a disc, that will take a while.
Why do I care?
You don't, yet.
If you're not into gaming, it's going to take some really impressive software / marketing to even put these on your radar. The Wii is already the system you're probably most interested in, and with the price drop to $199, it's the cheapest. This is even worse if you already own a Wii. Nothing's been shown that's worth buying a second system for.
Sony and Microsoft are going to be three and a half years late and are charging more. If their software and marketing aren't phenomenal, I don't think adding motion control to NetFlix / Blu-Ray / Facebook will be enough to take ground from the Wii.
If you are into gaming, you're going to buy these. As much as gamers like to deride motion controls, gaming hasn't changed much in a very long time. Hunger for novelty is probably enough to sell hardware, as long as there are decent games involved, but both solutions have additional cards to play.
For Natal, I suspect that will be face tracking. (If you don't have time to watch the video / are at work, it allows for 3D perspective shifts like Johnny Lee's old videos and adds head gesture controls.) As any gamer knows, more controls mean more tactical options. Microsoft knows how competitive gamers are and will use that to sell them Natal in mass quantities.
Sony's wands have their own advantages. For one thing, they become the path of least resistance for developers who have to design for gamepads and Wii controls already. Now Sony gets both versions while Natal support becomes the "if we have time" requirement. Additionally, the wands give the player pointing devices which they can use without taking their hands off the controller, good for shooting. Shooting with thumbsticks will never feel as good as pointing and pulling a trigger. And when gamers gets their first taste of dual wielding with independent aim, I think the sense of power and control they'll get will be hard to give up.
But these are minor advantages. The big win will be if it turns out it's possible to pull off solid face tracking with the PlayStation Eye. If it works close to as well as Natal's face tracking, Sony's solution will thoroughly outclass Microsoft's.
Sticklers' Note: Yes, PC gamers have had access to basic face tracking functionality in the form of TrackIR for eight years now and it never made much headway in the market. But only flight and military sims supported it, it was expensive, you had to wear silly glasses, and PC gaming was already ceding primacy to consoles by that point. With Microsoft (and possibly Sony) trying to make it mainstream, it will get in front of millions more people, giving developers a reason to put it in more games.
Wait. What?
Shut up about your core gamer fantasies! I thought you said this tech was supposed to be for the casual audience?
Yep.
But you said it will only sell to core gamers.
Yep.
That makes no sense.
You are not wrong. These new motion control offerings are going to do well, but not in the market segment Microsoft and Sony specifically developed them to capture.
Then again, maybe I'm wrong. After all, I'm just some gamer. I've marked my Google calendar to revisit this subject in one year, so we can see if I know better than the biggest players in the industry.
References
Wired's Game|Life blog article claims to have gotten the PS3 losing over three billion info from Forbes.
I don't remember where I first heard about Microsoft expecting to pay over a billion by extending the Red Ring of Death warranty, but I was reading Kotaku back then, so this article seems as good a source as any.
The Blu-Ray licensing fee info came from this CNet article. It's worth noting that I only cited the price for players and BD-ROMs. Recorders and writable media cost more to license. But since it's a joint license with Phillips and Panasonic, I don't expect Sony gets all the money anyway.
MTV Multiplayer turned me on to Torben Sko's work.
Preface: Kris Graft wrote this piece on motion controllers that took 1700 words to say stuff that most gamers had hashed out by the end of E3 (over four months ago). It's probably supposed to be introductory level material for a broad audience. It wasn't written for me. But I didn't know that at the time, so to me it felt like the piece beat around the bush and missed important information / didn't go deep enough. So I decided to write the piece I wanted to read.
The Basics
Since E3, we've known about Sony and Microsoft's motion controllers.
Microsoft will have a camera + microphone + infrared depth sensor.
Sony will have a camera + microphone + glowing Wiimotes.
Why?
The Wii proved that novel, simple controls could help broaden the audience for gaming. Sony and Microsoft want to control the living room, so they need to appeal to that wider audience.
The Wii also proved the wider audience didn't care about bleeding edge hardware. Considering Sony lost over three billion on the PS3, and Microsoft lost over a billion on faulty hardware, both would probably prefer to extend the current generation a year or two with new controls than go through another launch.
Sticklers' Note: Yes, the PS3 helped Sony "win the war" with HD-DVD, and they are making their 3+ billion back in licensing fees. But at $10 a player and 11 cents a disc, that will take a while.
Why do I care?
You don't, yet.
If you're not into gaming, it's going to take some really impressive software / marketing to even put these on your radar. The Wii is already the system you're probably most interested in, and with the price drop to $199, it's the cheapest. This is even worse if you already own a Wii. Nothing's been shown that's worth buying a second system for.
Sony and Microsoft are going to be three and a half years late and are charging more. If their software and marketing aren't phenomenal, I don't think adding motion control to NetFlix / Blu-Ray / Facebook will be enough to take ground from the Wii.
If you are into gaming, you're going to buy these. As much as gamers like to deride motion controls, gaming hasn't changed much in a very long time. Hunger for novelty is probably enough to sell hardware, as long as there are decent games involved, but both solutions have additional cards to play.
For Natal, I suspect that will be face tracking. (If you don't have time to watch the video / are at work, it allows for 3D perspective shifts like Johnny Lee's old videos and adds head gesture controls.) As any gamer knows, more controls mean more tactical options. Microsoft knows how competitive gamers are and will use that to sell them Natal in mass quantities.
Sony's wands have their own advantages. For one thing, they become the path of least resistance for developers who have to design for gamepads and Wii controls already. Now Sony gets both versions while Natal support becomes the "if we have time" requirement. Additionally, the wands give the player pointing devices which they can use without taking their hands off the controller, good for shooting. Shooting with thumbsticks will never feel as good as pointing and pulling a trigger. And when gamers gets their first taste of dual wielding with independent aim, I think the sense of power and control they'll get will be hard to give up.
But these are minor advantages. The big win will be if it turns out it's possible to pull off solid face tracking with the PlayStation Eye. If it works close to as well as Natal's face tracking, Sony's solution will thoroughly outclass Microsoft's.
Sticklers' Note: Yes, PC gamers have had access to basic face tracking functionality in the form of TrackIR for eight years now and it never made much headway in the market. But only flight and military sims supported it, it was expensive, you had to wear silly glasses, and PC gaming was already ceding primacy to consoles by that point. With Microsoft (and possibly Sony) trying to make it mainstream, it will get in front of millions more people, giving developers a reason to put it in more games.
Wait. What?
Shut up about your core gamer fantasies! I thought you said this tech was supposed to be for the casual audience?
Yep.
But you said it will only sell to core gamers.
Yep.
That makes no sense.
You are not wrong. These new motion control offerings are going to do well, but not in the market segment Microsoft and Sony specifically developed them to capture.
Then again, maybe I'm wrong. After all, I'm just some gamer. I've marked my Google calendar to revisit this subject in one year, so we can see if I know better than the biggest players in the industry.
References
Wired's Game|Life blog article claims to have gotten the PS3 losing over three billion info from Forbes.
I don't remember where I first heard about Microsoft expecting to pay over a billion by extending the Red Ring of Death warranty, but I was reading Kotaku back then, so this article seems as good a source as any.
The Blu-Ray licensing fee info came from this CNet article. It's worth noting that I only cited the price for players and BD-ROMs. Recorders and writable media cost more to license. But since it's a joint license with Phillips and Panasonic, I don't expect Sony gets all the money anyway.
MTV Multiplayer turned me on to Torben Sko's work.
04 September, 2007
Needless Worrying
N'Gai Croal owns me. He works for Newsweek and knows more about big business and gaming than I ever will. N'Gai's Level Up blog is required reading, and has been ever since I found my way there via Kotaku.
Besides his impressive knowledge of gaming and business, N'Gai likes to think. Most gaming mags and podcasts are focused on the next big product for so-called core gamers. That's fair. That's who works on those mags and podcasts. But N'Gai watches the bigger picture and in his latest exchange with Geoff Keighley, asks whether the gaming press is missing the boat. The Wii has sold more units than the 360. The biggest Wii games are Wii Sports and Wii Play and Mario Party 8, which don't suck, but aren't of much interest to core gamers. But with the Wii sales showing no signs of abating, I have to wonder, how big will the mainstream market get? Is it bigger than core gamers? If core gamers aren't buying most of the games, are they really core gamers anymore?
Essentially, this is how I feel about most entertainment. Most movies, TV, and music are crap. I follow a few artists and listen to what my peers (or rough approximations thereof since I'm older than many of them, now) are saying about what's new and worth following. I am not a core movie viewer, core TV watcher, or core music listener. I am on the fringes. I can enjoy the mainstream stuff, but it's not my preference. I keep thinking that these are my leanings, regardless of medium, and as gaming goes mainstream, I (and most other core gamers) will be on the fringes again.
This isn't going to be a quick process, though. The games industry is large. There's a lot of inertia. It takes a couple years to change the direction of something so big. First, they need to realize where the money really is. It's not core gamers.
They're a significant audience, and publishers will slavishly cater to them while laboring under the illusion that their game can be the next Halo. But developing games for core gamers is a huge risk because their standards are so high. Development takes lots of cash and time and even small issues with the game will immediately be trumpeted on every blog and message board, hurting sales. The big market is in reselling people the brands they already want. Family friendly, easy to learn, well branded stuff that as long as it's semi-playable, will sell for years.
Nobody else seems to fear the mainstream. Am I just crazy?
Besides his impressive knowledge of gaming and business, N'Gai likes to think. Most gaming mags and podcasts are focused on the next big product for so-called core gamers. That's fair. That's who works on those mags and podcasts. But N'Gai watches the bigger picture and in his latest exchange with Geoff Keighley, asks whether the gaming press is missing the boat. The Wii has sold more units than the 360. The biggest Wii games are Wii Sports and Wii Play and Mario Party 8, which don't suck, but aren't of much interest to core gamers. But with the Wii sales showing no signs of abating, I have to wonder, how big will the mainstream market get? Is it bigger than core gamers? If core gamers aren't buying most of the games, are they really core gamers anymore?
Essentially, this is how I feel about most entertainment. Most movies, TV, and music are crap. I follow a few artists and listen to what my peers (or rough approximations thereof since I'm older than many of them, now) are saying about what's new and worth following. I am not a core movie viewer, core TV watcher, or core music listener. I am on the fringes. I can enjoy the mainstream stuff, but it's not my preference. I keep thinking that these are my leanings, regardless of medium, and as gaming goes mainstream, I (and most other core gamers) will be on the fringes again.
This isn't going to be a quick process, though. The games industry is large. There's a lot of inertia. It takes a couple years to change the direction of something so big. First, they need to realize where the money really is. It's not core gamers.
They're a significant audience, and publishers will slavishly cater to them while laboring under the illusion that their game can be the next Halo. But developing games for core gamers is a huge risk because their standards are so high. Development takes lots of cash and time and even small issues with the game will immediately be trumpeted on every blog and message board, hurting sales. The big market is in reselling people the brands they already want. Family friendly, easy to learn, well branded stuff that as long as it's semi-playable, will sell for years.
Nobody else seems to fear the mainstream. Am I just crazy?
12 April, 2007
Because I Felt Like Being Snarky
I read too much gaming news, and there was a lot of it today. I guess the fiscal quarter transition brings it out. I'll never write for Kotaku or Joystiq, but for some reason I felt like writing for myself today. This post is simultaneously quite informative (if you don't read as much gaming news as me) and pointlessly snarky. If you enjoy that sort of thing, read on.
- Sony is halting 20GB PS3 production after less than six months on the market. I guess even pretending they had a low low entry point of half a grand was too much effort.
- Nobody is excited about the 1337 edition of the 360. (Maybe if it doesn't eat disks, charge for multiplayer and cheat codes, and break down in under year like many of the regular 360s seem to...)
- Sony is increasing production, which I guess is to reflect that they're now selling units in Europe, since they seem to have more than they need in the US.
- Microsoft is getting called out on horrendous channel stuffing. They put so many units in the channel last Q4 (4.4 million) that they're estimating only moving 1.6 million for the entire first half of this year.
- There are rumors that with the fiscal quarter sewn up, Nintendo may decide to unleash some secret stash of Wiis into the marketplace. On some level it seems reasonable since the Wii should be the easiest of all the systems to build, but it seems like Nintendo has been doing their manufacturing on the cheap to wring out every last penny.
- EA, and I think a few others, basically admitted they screwed up by not putting enough resources into Wii dev. The PS3 (which they put full resources behind) had production problems with blu-ray and slow adoption at a $600 price point. What $16 billion dollar company could have afforded the analyst coverage to have foreseen that?
In the interest of fairness, I've never made a game console. I'm guessing it's really, really hard. But even with that, I can see one simple thing, all three console makers got greedy, and it's probably costing them millions. In fact, I'd almost say game consoles are over. Sony and Microsoft are selling home media centers and Nintendo is selling to grandmas.
See if you can enjoy this analogy. We're gaming city. We're not the envy of the living room entertainment nation, but we've got a respectable economy. Our little city is just fine. Oh shit.
Everybody is screaming. Stuff is blowing up left and right. The news is going apeshit. Godzilla and Mechagodzilla (after all, they're largely interchangeable) are fighting for control of the nation. They're throwing DVR lightning bolts and myspace missiles at each other. Downloadable content is raining down like a friggin' meteor swarm. Although in this already laughably broken analogy, their real effect seems to be driving up real estate prices so that no one can afford to live here anymore. :) In the meantime, the army is trying to herd us (and everyone in the rest of the nation) into trucks to take us to some ghetto ass voting channel minigame refugee tent city.
So what do you do? Where are you going to be when the dust settles? Where do gamers really end up in the battle for the consolidated living room?
First to go. Last to know, eh?
23 May, 2006
Wii Problems
Last time I talked about what a big deal I think the motion sensor in the Wii controller is. Now it's time to talk about obstacles.
- The tech: Some folks at E3 said the Wii controller lost its cursor or seemed to stop responding intermittently. Whether this is because there were dozens of them all competing for the same bandwidth or not is unknown, but if the tech isn't spot on, the controller will never feel right to demanding gamers such as myself.
- Gesture based control: Thus far, most Wii games are gesture based. This sucks. Flick this way to shoot a grapple beam. Flick this way to cock your shotgun. These all sound good on paper, but if I don't get that "analog feel", the feeling that I can touch what my avatar is touching, the controller will be nothing but a gimmick.
- Driving games: I gotta give it up to the Dreamcast team, they were the first to put triggers on a controller that could act as proper throttles for driving games. The Wii controller looks fine for fairly simplistic driving games, but I just don't see how you'd do a proper throttle for something like Project Gotham.
- Gun games: The light gun is built in. Everyone and their mother will do a crappy light gun game, largely squandering the Wii's potential. Please, let Duck Hunt and Resident Evil 5 handle that. They'll do it better than you could anyway. Sega's House of the Dead compilation is probably clawing through the lid of its coffin even as I write this. :P
All that said, the second I can feel like I'm cocking a shotgun and kicking in doors, the second I feel like I'm really blocking blaster fire with my light saber while force pushing a guy through a window with my free hand, the days of the dual analog are over. Come on game devs. Make us proud. :)
Wii
I mean, what else is there to talk about, really?
You want to talk about PS3? Why? It's the same games with prettier graphics.
You want to talk about the 360? Ditto.
The Wii is just the same games with different controls?
Hmmm.
You've got a point, but you're missing the bigger one.
No matter what the hardware is you'll end up with the same games. There'll still be shooters, fighting games, sports games, driving games, etc. Going fast, kicking ass, and blowing stuff up are far more American than mom and apple pie. :)
I hate to say it because the word is so completely overused in the gaming press, but what motion sensitive control gives you is immersion. The feeling you are actually touching the game world, even if it can't really touch you back, is huge.
The example I always give for this is a really terrible game, so humor me here. I occasionally like to play games that have been universally panned to see if they could possibly be as bad as everyone said. One of those games was Jurassic Park: Trespasser. It was $2, so how bad could it be? It lived up to the hype. The pop-in on the terrain was attrocious. The AI was a joke. And the amazing sound engine meant that if you smacked a board with another board, you got to hear three different samples instead of one. w00t.
What Trespasser did have was physics, and a hand. The physics were pretty unstable, but a good enough aproximation. And the you had the hand. It was a pain to control, with separate keys needing to be pressed to wave the arm and rotate and bend the wrist. But the feeling that you could pick up, throw about, and drop objects in the game world was primal. Just being able to pick something up and turn it over in your hand using the mouse added a whole other level of reality to the game.
It was a pain in the ass, of course. Aiming a gun was a huge chore, and the 2D plane of mouse control made throwing stuff with any precision an exercise in frustration. But the hand stuck with me. Every shooter I picked up for months afterward felt terrible. "That isn't my hand! That's just an icon representing a gun! I can't touch anything!" I got over it. They were much better games, after all. But Trespasser taught me the power of touch, and if developers do right by the Wii controller, everyone will know, and they won't want to go back.
You want to talk about PS3? Why? It's the same games with prettier graphics.
You want to talk about the 360? Ditto.
The Wii is just the same games with different controls?
Hmmm.
You've got a point, but you're missing the bigger one.
No matter what the hardware is you'll end up with the same games. There'll still be shooters, fighting games, sports games, driving games, etc. Going fast, kicking ass, and blowing stuff up are far more American than mom and apple pie. :)
I hate to say it because the word is so completely overused in the gaming press, but what motion sensitive control gives you is immersion. The feeling you are actually touching the game world, even if it can't really touch you back, is huge.
The example I always give for this is a really terrible game, so humor me here. I occasionally like to play games that have been universally panned to see if they could possibly be as bad as everyone said. One of those games was Jurassic Park: Trespasser. It was $2, so how bad could it be? It lived up to the hype. The pop-in on the terrain was attrocious. The AI was a joke. And the amazing sound engine meant that if you smacked a board with another board, you got to hear three different samples instead of one. w00t.
What Trespasser did have was physics, and a hand. The physics were pretty unstable, but a good enough aproximation. And the you had the hand. It was a pain to control, with separate keys needing to be pressed to wave the arm and rotate and bend the wrist. But the feeling that you could pick up, throw about, and drop objects in the game world was primal. Just being able to pick something up and turn it over in your hand using the mouse added a whole other level of reality to the game.
It was a pain in the ass, of course. Aiming a gun was a huge chore, and the 2D plane of mouse control made throwing stuff with any precision an exercise in frustration. But the hand stuck with me. Every shooter I picked up for months afterward felt terrible. "That isn't my hand! That's just an icon representing a gun! I can't touch anything!" I got over it. They were much better games, after all. But Trespasser taught me the power of touch, and if developers do right by the Wii controller, everyone will know, and they won't want to go back.
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