21 February, 2011

State of the Industry?

written by Blain Newport on Saturday, 19 February, 2011

I used to think I had a passing idea of how the industry was doing, but a lot of stuff just doesn't make sense.



Music games are out
Activision laid off virtually everyone working on Guitar Hero (and most of the rest of the company that wasn't Blizzard or working on Call of Duty). Similarly, Viacom sold Harmonix (the makers of Rock Band (and Guitar Hero initially)) back to the original owners.

But dancing games are in
Four of the top ten selling games at retail for January were Wii dancing games.



Conventional wisdom is that the 3DS will do great
I don't remember hearing any serious doubts on the Giant Bombcast, Gamers With Jobs podcast, or Weekend Confirmed. And I haven't seen doubts around the forums, either. But that might be because I haven't been looking for them.

But cell phone games cost a buck and DS games cost forty
We've got article titles like "As Mobile Games Rise, Studios Fear for Blockbusters’ Future" and "Peter Moore Likens Game Industry to 'Burning Oil Platform'" which talk about mobile games threatening the big games. But shouldn't the portables be feeling the squeeze much worse than the blockbusters?

Maybe the commentators I've listened to are just thinking about the hardware, which should be novel enough to move a lot of units initially. I don't know.



Game companies want to expand into other media
Facebook and the iPhone are big? Let's put versions of our game on them! Let's make comics! Let's make movies! Everything grows the brand and makes money simultaneously!

But game companies can't really create or share
People play a game to do stuff. But in every other medium they look for genres, settings, characters, stories, and sometimes particular actors, writers, or directors. Games work in well established genres. Sometimes they have interesting settings. But everything else they tend to do poorly, including giving recognition to performers and designers because they don't want to pay them more. Also the TV and film industries seem to view games as the enemy and vice versa, even when they're part of the same parent company.



The industry sees big money in social gaming
Farmville maker Zynga is making crazy bank. They made $200 million last year, and are supposed to be on track to more than double that this year. Considering the company's size, and that their revenues are more predictable than the hit driven big games, they're doing great.

But that's not how social interaction works
People have been trying to take some of World of Warcraft's success for years, and even though there are many games that had elements gamers preferred, everybody they knew was playing WoW already. I suspect that's the main challenge anyone trying to break into the social space will run up against. That doesn't mean you can't still make money there. But the kind of money a large publisher looks for may just be a pipe dream.



As many developers have said, these are frightening, exciting, and uncertain times for the industry. We'll see how it goes.

20 February, 2011

A Bit More On Biometrics

written by Blain Newport on Sunday, 20 February, 2011

There were a couple more things about biometrics I wanted to mention. Valve had a debug setup where they could play Left 4 Dead competitively and see the excitement level of everyone playing. They noticed that people often attacked the most excited player on the other team and defended the most excited player on their own team. And this is definitely valuable data to have as a player. I often get frustrated with teammates who don't know what to do, but if I could see that they were freaking out, I would be more likely to cut them some slack.

Gabe actually thinks this might make the internet significantly more civil, but I doubt it. A lot of the people who behave badly in games do it precisely because they get a rise out of people. Being able to see your jerkiness have a quantitative effect will probably just make it more fun for them.

Also, the second people catch on that The Director attacks them less when they're exited, or that everyone helps the person with the highest excitement, they'll just lick their hand so the sensor thinks they're totally sweaty and freaking out.

We're gamers. Give us a system; we game it.

19 February, 2011

Biometrics

written by Blain Newport on Wednesday, 16 February, 2011

I saw a mention on Blues News about an interview with Valve Software head honcho Gabe Newell (Part 1, Part 2).

I had heard about Valve working with psychologists in some of the coverage surrounding Half-Life 2. I thought they'd worked on the facial animation system and gone back to their old jobs. It turns out there's a lot I didn't know.

Here's the first question of the interview.

In the past you spoke about using biometrics to measure players physical and emotional response to a game. Would this technology only apply to play-testing in order to add better design the games or would it be something that all players would be able to use? If it became an option for all players, how do you see this technology being integrated in a non-intrusive piece of hardware.


Huh? Seriously? That's your first question?

Gabe spent over eight minutes responding. I had no idea Valve was so far down this road. Heck, I didn't even know this was a road.



Galvanic Skin Response - by measuring how much a person is sweating, you can tell how excited he or she is. You can't tell if it's fear or anger or lust. But you know they're worked up about something. Valve's put this tech into mice (the mouse and keyboard kind, not the medical experiment kind), so they can measure player responses.

If you've played Left 4 Dead, you probably already know where this is going. Left 4 Dead is a cooperative game where AI opponents are set loose on the players by an algorithm called The Director. When the players are healthy and well armed, The Director sends more monsters. When they're beaten and running on empty, The Director may space the enemies out more, or spawn more helpful items for players to find. It's a good system. But now, it knows when they're afraid. That allows them to adjust The Director in very effective ways.

Gabe said he "would be surprised" if next gen controllers didn't have this tech integrated.



Eye tracking - While current console cameras and most webcams don't have the resolution, we may eventually get to the point where tracking eye movement and pupil dilation (which can indicate interest in what the viewer is looking at) becomes feasible. Advertisers have long used eye tracking to test that their ads draw viewers to their logo or product. But it's also very important to games where designers want to be sure players see cool scripted events, find clues to solve puzzles, and can see an enemy telegraphing an attack to react accordingly. As a side benefit, this might allow users to navigate menus and target by simply glancing around the screen.

No estimate of when this might be practical for mainstream use was given.



Transcranial Magnetic Stimulation - Outside of having EEG equipment implanted in your head, this was the freakiest thing discussed in the interview. Apparently researches have made significant progress in remotely stimulating specific parts of the brain with magnets. If you want the player to feel something, you directly stimulate the relevant portions of his or her brain. The long term effects on humans aren't known. But people are already willing to risk severe illness and death for the way alcohol and nicotine (not to mention illegal drugs) make them feel, so who knows?

Gabe thinks we may see this tech make it into some kind of game controller ten years from now. Although he might have been talking about a crazy expensive PC peripheral, and not any kind of mainstream application.



Before the Wii came out, most of this would have sounded like crazy talk. But from the Wii's success, the responses from the other console makers, and the push for 3D, it's obvious that the industry has a keen interest in any new differentiator.

18 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Friday, 18 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 068a - Endings

0:00 - looting the Grand Master
0:50 - Dandelion and final decision
2:10 - final consequences
3:30 - bizarro conclusion
5:20 - neutral conclusion
6:30 - closing cinematic



Witcher 069a - Final Spoiler and Credits

0:00 - final spoiler
1:40 - credits





Thanks to

- CD Projekt Red and everyone involved in making The Witcher.
- WotanAnubis, Gooberslot, mrfreeman117, and everyone who participated in and viewed the walkthrough.
- the makers of AviSynth, AvsP, VirtualDub, Audacity, MediaCoder, and the encoders used (x264, cudaH264Enc, and faac).
- the Something Awful let's play forum for pointing me towards the aforementioned tools.
- Henroid and the Penny Arcade forums for providing a nice place to gather.



Final Saves

For anyone who might want to import them into The Witcher 2, here are the final saves.

16 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Wednesday, 16 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 067b - Bizarro Epilogue

0:00 - ascent
5:30 - climax
6:20 - aftermath

14 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Monday, 14 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 067a - Bizarro Epilogue

0:00 - king's conference
2:20 - troubled streets
3:30 - safe house
4:20 - Yaevinn
5:10 - zeugl
6:30 - road to cloister

10 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Thursday, 10 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 066c - Bizarro Chapter Five

0:00 - murdering to the manor
2:30 - murdering in the manor
3:30 - Azar
6:00 - the big reveal

08 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Tuesday, 8 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 066b - Bizarro Chapter Five

0:00 - hospital
2:40 - clearing Old Vizima
4:10 - swamp
5:40 - crypt stuff

04 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Friday, 4 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 066a - Bizarro Chapter Five

0:00 - arrival
1:30 - court
5:30 - old Vizima

01 February, 2011

Game Journal: The Witcher

written by Blain Newport on Tuesday, 1 February, 2011

GAME JOURNALS CONTAIN SPOILERS. DEAL WITH IT PINK BOY.

Witcher 065a - The Finger

0:00 - King of the Wild Hunt
1:30 - Grand Master
2:20 - Dandelion